Conditions at Royal Birkdale
Royal Birkdale is expected to present firm and fast conditions for The Open 2026, a factor that could significantly influence play. The dry weather, sun, and wind have contributed to the course drying out, leading to what has been described as “The Brown™.” This could make the course play both easier and harder, according to some players.
The firm conditions mean that the ball will run considerably, requiring strategic thinking off the tee. Fairway bunkers will be a key hazard, with players potentially opting for more aggressive drives to bypass them, even if it means landing in the rough, which is less penal due to the dry conditions. The course has also undergone several changes since it last hosted The Open in 2017, including alterations to the 5th, 7th, 13th, 14th, and a new par-3 15th hole.
Rory McIlroy noted that while the dry conditions are beneficial for the course in one way, the rough is less penal than it was weeks prior. He also mentioned that some of the greens, with their runoffs and mounding, might feel “unnatural” but create a good challenge by offering players various options for recovery shots.
Player strategies and predictions
The firm conditions are prompting some players to adjust their equipment. Justin Rose, who made his amateur debut at Birkdale in 1998, plans to carry 2-, 3-, and 4-irons, replacing his usual 7-wood and one wedge. Scottie Scheffler will include a 3-iron in his bag, noting that the firmness increases the mental challenge by providing different options on most holes.
Scheffler, the world No. 1, is aiming to defend his title, a year after his victory at Royal Portrush. He is also looking to rebound from a missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open. The last player to successfully defend The Open title was Padraig Harrington in 2008, and no player has won the Claret Jug for a second time since Ernie Els in 2012.
Four of the last five Champion Golfers have been American, with players like US Open champion Wyndham Clark, 2021 Open winner Collin Morikawa, and Chris Gotterup among those hoping to continue this trend. McIlroy, who won at Royal Liverpool in 2014, is also seeking another Claret Jug, having had strong performances and multiple top-10 finishes since his win.
English hopes for a major victory include Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Justin Rose. England has not had an Open winner since Sir Nick Faldo in 1992. Pundits have offered their predictions for who might win and who could be a surprise contender:
- Paul McGinley: Scottie Scheffler (winner), Akshay Bhatia (surprise)
- Sir Nick Faldo: Matt Fitzpatrick (winner), Jacob Bridgeman (surprise)
- Rich Beem: Tommy Fleetwood (winner), Min Woo Lee (surprise)
- Dame Laura Davies: Tommy Fleetwood (winner), Brian Harman (surprise)
- Nick Dougherty: Matt Fitzpatrick (winner), Alex Fitzpatrick (surprise)
- Wayne ‘Radar’ Riley: Matt Fitzpatrick (winner), Russell Henley (surprise)
- Ewen Murray: Matt Fitzpatrick (winner), Patrick Reed (surprise)
- Tim Barter: Matt Fitzpatrick (winner), Alex Fitzpatrick (surprise)
- Andrew Coltart: Matt Fitzpatrick (winner), Si Woo Kim (surprise)
- Mark Roe: Scottie Scheffler (winner), Joaquin Niemann (surprise)
- Inci Mehmet: Justin Rose (winner), Sam Burns (surprise)
- Josh Antmann: Russell Henley (winner), Chris Gotterup (surprise)
The tournament will feature at least 15 hours of action during the first two rounds, with extended coverage beginning at 9 am on Saturday and 8 am on Sunday.
Source: skysports.com