The World Cup final is set to feature a clash between Argentina and Spain, marking the first time the champions of South America and Europe have met at this stage. The two nations currently hold the top two positions in Fifa’s world rankings for men’s international teams. According to Opta’s supercomputer, Luis de la Fuente’s side is considered the favourite to win the tournament.
Both teams have demonstrated strong performances leading up to the final. Spain is currently unbeaten in 37 matches, excluding penalty shootouts, while Argentina has secured victories in their past 14 games. These records highlight the consistent form of both finalists.
The match is anticipated to be a tight contest, with Opta giving Spain a 45% chance of winning in 90 minutes, and Argentina a 26% chance. Despite these predictions, tournament data suggests the game could be closer than the figures imply.
Defensive Strength vs. Attacking Prowess
Spain has showcased a remarkable defensive record throughout the tournament, conceding only 2.15 expected goals, which averages out to a miserly 0.31 per match. This is considered the best defensive record among all teams, demonstrating an elite level of consistency over seven games. Five teams in the tournament allowed opponents more than 2.15 xG in their first match, with 41 teams surpassing that mark by the end of the group stage.
While Spain‘s defensive solidity is notable, Argentina has also maintained a strong performance, being the last of the other 47 teams to concede more than 2.15 xG. This occurred when Yasser Ibrahim scored for Egypt in the last-16. Although Argentina cannot match Spain‘s defensive statistics, they have kept a close pace with the European side.
The attacking threat of Argentina is also significant. Lionel Messi has taken the most shots of any player on either side, with 34 attempts, including two penalties. For Spain, Lamine Yamal has registered 23 shots, and Mikel Oyarzabal has taken 22 shots, one of which was a penalty.
While Yamal is sometimes prone to shooting from less favourable positions, Oyarzabal boasts the best expected goals per shot average for either team among players with at least 10 shots, at 0.15. Other players like Mikel Merino (0.35) and Lautaro Martínez (0.22) have higher figures and could play crucial roles from the bench, being adept at converting significant opportunities.
Community Excitement and Divided Loyalties
The final has generated considerable excitement, even creating divisions within families. In Lincolnshire, Maria Herraiz, originally from Madrid, will be watching the match with her Argentinian husband, Andres Roco. The couple, who operate a delicatessen in Lincoln, will be supporting their respective home countries.
Maria expressed confidence in Spain, predicting a 3-1 victory for the European champions. Andres noted that their three children will be supporting England, having been born in the country, adding a further layer of division to their household. Their deli, Nonna Juana, combines Spanish and Argentinian cuisines, but the football rivalry remains strong.
The atmosphere is expected to be tense, mirroring the excitement at the New York New Jersey stadium where the final will be held. Andres, who has lived in Spain, stated his loyalties are split 60-40, ultimately favouring Argentina. The match is set to be an epic evening of football as fans eagerly await the outcome.
The final is scheduled for Sunday.
Source: theguardian.com