The ongoing Iran war is jeopardizing food security across Africa, particularly affecting the continent’s most vulnerable populations. As of May 1, 2026, the conflict has led to alarming increases in fertiliser prices, which are critical for agricultural production in regions like Ethiopia and Kenya.
Since the onset of hostilities, the price of urea—a key fertiliser ingredient—has surged by between 60% and 70%. This spike threatens to escalate food shortages and price rises in Africa’s poorest communities, where even modest increases can lead to devastating consequences.
Africa is a significant food importer despite its capacity for agricultural production. Approximately 35% of the world’s supply of urea comes from Gulf states, making regions such as sub-Saharan Africa highly susceptible to fluctuations in global markets. The war has disrupted ammonia supplies, further complicating fertiliser production and distribution.
Key statistics:
- The price of urea has increased by 60% to 70% since the war began.
- The EU has announced grant aid of up to €50,000 for farmers impacted by the conflict.
- Ethiopia and Kenya are particularly exposed due to their reliance on Middle Eastern nitrogenous fertilisers.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International—the world’s largest fertiliser company—expressed grave concerns about the situation. “The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now—that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable,” he stated. His remarks underscore a growing urgency among leaders to address these challenges head-on.
The impact of these rising costs is palpable among farmers. Many are reconsidering their livelihoods; one farmer lamented that farming often leads to financial losses and expressed a willingness to work as a day labourer for mere survival—earning between 100 to 200 baht daily rather than risking bankruptcy through farming.
The situation continues to evolve as supply chains face unprecedented challenges. S&P Global reports that restrictions on fuel and fertilisers due to the war have resulted in cascading effects throughout food supply networks. With each passing day, farmers lose production capacity, compounding an already critical scenario that may take weeks or months to recover from.
The international community watches closely as these developments unfold. The next steps are crucial; leaders must act swiftly to mitigate further disruptions and ensure that food security remains a priority amidst ongoing conflict.